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Writer's pictureMark Hogan

AFC South Preview: Teams relying on defenses to win games

The NFL's 100th season is finally upon us after thousands of hours - and hundreds of thousands of minutes - without a competitive snap. After all the talk, the questions we over-thought about during the off-season will finally get some answer.


So let's kick things off by looking at the state of each team.


Houston Texans

If anyone benefited from Andrew Luck's retirement, it's Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Last month's sudden news left the AFC South wide open; and no one is in a better position than Watson to become the face of the division.


Strides are expected from the 23-year-old in Year 3. While his offensive line didn't look too bolstered until the trade for Laremy Tunsil, the left tackle's presence transforms what this offense can do. With a hole on Watson's blind side plugged, the mobile signal caller will have far more time to make plays last year, when he was sacked an astonishing 62 times.


This Texans team has weapons. Wide receiver Deandre Hopkins is a Top 3 receiver in the league, and alongside a healthy Will Fuller, the team will present nightmare matchups if Watson is kept upright. Despite last year's total sack number, Watson lead a Top 15 offense, per ESPN. With the expected improvements, this team should be looking to break the Top 10.


But success on defense is what will determine this team's season. The team conceded fifth fewest points in the NFL last year, but has a weak secondary. Houston will hope aging cornerback Johnathan Joseph won't regress in his 14th season, while free agent addition Bradley Roby has proved he's inconsistent since entering the league as 2014 first rounder. That said, fellow corner Kareem Jackson had a great 2018.


Trading defensive end Jadeveon Clowney away will hurt the team. While Clowney never lived up to the billing of a first overall selection and never took over games like a Khalil Mack or Aaron Donald, he was agreat presence and run stuffer.


The knock on effect the trade will have on star defender JJ Watt is worrying. Watt is bound to see more double teams now -- which won't help him get to the quarterback or stay healthy.


A strength in 2018, regression seems inevitable for the defensive unit in 2019.



Indianapolis Colts

The Colts failed to win the AFC South last season with quarterback Andrew Luck. So what hope has the team without him?


It would be naive to say Luck's departure isn't a severe set back, but this team can still win. This team is loaded with play makers, is stacked on defense and has a 2018 Coach of the Year candidate in Frank Reich.


The offensive line has gone from a weakness to a strength under general manager Chris Ballard. As 1SBD's Enda Smith puts it, left guard Quenton Nelson is like a fridge on the line of scrimmage, unable to be moved. Center Ryan Kelly is one of the best at the position in the league. Those two have helped buoy a line that gave up fewest sacks in the league (18) last year, or 29 percent of the rival Texans' total.


And playing behind that improved O-line is what inspires hope for new starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Brissett looked miserable as the Colts starter in 2017 en route to a 4-11 record. But the Colts gave up the most sacks (56) league-wide, 211% more than last year. So the problem may not have been all Brissett.


Weapons have improved for the signal caller too. The always-reliable TY Hilton remains at wide receiver, while the team just drafted Parris Campbell in the second round. While growing pains can be expected from him, he will still be an X-Factor alongside tight ends Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. Running back Marlon Mack does look to be a sub-par option in the backfield however, and wide receiver Devin Funchess doesn't look like a solid depth option.


We saw play-making linebacker Darius Leonard go on a Defensive Rookie of the Year run in 2018 which provides plenty of hope on defense. Talent was added all around him in the off-season, not least with fellow linebacker Justin Houston coming in from Kansas City.


In the secondary, cornerback Rock Ya-Sin looked like the most pro-ready option in the draft. He goes to a group that hadn't much depth behind Kenny Moore and Pierre Desir. Safetey could be an area teams wish to exploit however, with starters like Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers coming with injury concerns.


Overall, the Colts boast a strong roster that can go as far as Brissett can take them. Unfortunately that doesn't look like it will be the playoffs, but it shouldn't be bottom of this division either.


Jacksonville Jaguars

Which version of quarterback Nick Foles will show up in Jacksonville is a mystery. The last time he played outside of Philadelphia, the Super Bowl 52 MVP looked destined for an early exit from the league.


On paper, Foles isn't as attractive as other quarterbacks. Very few Fantasy players will go near him. But the 30-the-year has shown such promising flashes that there's hope he can just do enough to keep Jacksonville competitive this year.


And that has to be an upgrade on Blake Bortles.


Where Foles might struggle to look like his Philly-self is obvious: the situation isn't close to what it was with the Eagles. The cast doesn't boast a a variety of options like pass catchers Alshon Jeffrey and Zach Ertz. Maybe even more importantly, it doesn't have Doug Pederson calling plays.


Since Foles worked with new Jags head coach John DeFilippo in Philadelphia, there's hope the duo can have an impact fast. But you can't do that without weapons. Wide receiver Dede Westbrook has been praised in the off-season, as has running back Leonard Fournette. But Fournette's style of running doesn't seem suited to the modern day backfield, and there's little depth behind Westbrook.


The key for the team is for this defense to bring them back to the playoffs, just like in 2017. This side of the ball is super strong, with probably the best cornerback situation in the league. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is becoming a household name with his loud-mouth attitude backed up with play making skills, and AJ Bouye looked strong last year too.


Linebacker Myles Jack started showing some good physicality in the middle of the field in 2018, while the team has a loaded defensive line up front. A group consisting of Yannick Ngakoue, Josh Allen and Calais Campbell is ferocious, and likely keeps 2018 first rounder Tayvon Bryan in a depth role.


Overall, the defense is incredibly talented despite a "down year" in 2018 -- when they conceded fourth fewest points league-wide. After looking legendary in 2017, the team will need to play to that kind of level again so Foles is in a position to challenge for the division title.


Tennessee Titans

Another season, another prove it year for Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota. The former second overall pick will see his fifth offensive coordinator since entering the league in 2015; a wholly unideal situation.


Mariota remained one of the league's most frustrating players in 2018, when expectations that he would perform under offensive guru Matt LaFleur were only met with inconsistency.

Since entering the league in 2015, Mariota is 27-28 as a stater, while throwing for 12,004 yards, 69 touchdowns and 42 interceptions, per Pro Football Reference. He's the third winning-est quarterback against teams with a winning record in that time, but understandably enters the year on an expiring rookie contract as the tea looks for a decision.


Whether health-related or not - Mariota missed three games at the end of last year with a nerve injury - the 25-year-old signal-caller will need some strong performances under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith if he is to stay in Nashville. Failing that, the team my opt to move on in 2020.


The offensive line is worth questioning. Big name free agency left guard Roger Saffold seems to bring more hype than ability to the team and will be interesting to watch. Wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis don't blow you away. Second round pick AJ Brown might help the group eventually but it seems unlikely straight out of the gate. And running back Derrick Henry is on that outer bubble of strong running backs in the league.


While all the intrigue comes on offense, there are note-worthy mentions on defense. Kevin Byard just became the league's highest paid safety off some incredible play-making abilities. And while linebacker Cameron Wake is getting on in age (37), his one year deal is a good punt on a guy that can still create pressure.


All in all, this year might not be as strong as some commentators hope. An answer at the quarterback position would go a long ways for the team coming out of the year, and might be the best they can hope for.

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