Last week, we began previewing the 2019 NFL season and found five teams who don't need an awful lot of wins to earn us a decent bit of money. This week, we're having a look at some teams more likely to be in post-season contention but whose Over/ Unders still give us a chance to get some green at the end of 2019.
You might want to back all five lines or just parlay some with last week's suggestions, but either way we're confident they'll come off.
As per last week, odds are from OddsChecker.com so check prices relative to your own bookmaker. (We've noticed from doing this that William Hill is offering best odds consistently on the Over/Under line)
Now let's get in to it.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 9.5 wins @ 4/6
A season removed from being Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles remain stacked. The roster is the best in its division and could be vying for the best in the NFC at the end of the season.
On offense, Philadelphia owns probably the best offensive line AND best wide receiver corps in the league. Where depth was a worry in the past, the team now has adequate replacements should injuries arise. That said, with backup quarterback and Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles now in Jacksonville, the Eagles' season depends on starter Carson Wentz’s ability to remain healthy for a full season.
Saying that, Wentz sticking around is my only worry. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushing units in the league, a completely rejuvenated backfield to compliment their enviable aerial attack, and a great offensive head coach in Pederson.
Philadelphia has the potential to not only match their Super Bowl winning performances, but to look even better. In a weak division, I expect them to be able to hit the over, especially with the Zeke situation in Dallas developing into a possibly serious holdout. This is my NAP.
Minnesota Vikings Over 9 wins @ 4/5
In what was a calamity of a season last year, the Vikings still managed seven wins with poor quarterback play, an under performing defense, and an offensive line that resembled turnstiles in a packed out US Bank Stadium.
But with quality play-makers on both sides of the ball, the Vikings are in their Super Bowl window and just have to put it all together in 2019.
Full disclosure, I'm a Vikings fan -- so I may have my Purple tinted goggles on. But I honestly don’t think there are many better rosters in the NFL than Minnesota's. General manager Rick Speilman did a phenomenal job re-signing defensive end Daniele Hunter while getting linebacker Anthony Barr back at the eleventh hour. The defense is primed to return to its 2017 self; dominant and near best in the league.
If the addition of coordinator Gary Kubiak can get the offence to perform to its potential, the Vikings could easily be in contention in late January. Stars like running back Dalvin Cook, one of the best wide receiver duos in the league - Adam Thelen and Stefon Diggs - and tight end Kyle Rudolph give quarterback Kirk Cousins some elite positional talent. If only he uses them in Year 2 with the team.
The line may be nine wins, but I think this was under-inflated due to the tough NFC North. As you can read below, I don’t think the Bears will be up to all everyone expects this season, so the challenge may become slightly easier.
Los Angeles Rams under 10.5 wins @ 10/13
This may seem ludicrous. Take the under on a team that just got to the Super Bowl with possibly the best young head coach in the league? You bet ya.
My issue doesn’t lie with head coach Sean McVay; it lies with what happened in the Super Bowl. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick orchestrated a game plan to completely shut down one of the highest-octane offences from last season. In doing so, he gave a blueprint for success to every NFL head coach and defensive coordinator playing the Los Angeles Rams this season.
It looked simple: force quarterback Jared Goff to make hard throws. I know that's easier said than done, but Goff’s success is more attributable to the Rams' system - and McVay reading the defense on Goff's behalf - than Goff's innate ability as a quarterback. In a league forced to stop seriously talented quarterbacks, I don't see Goff being such a tough puzzle any more.
I understand the NFC West appears weak and it's worth a few wins, but I expect all three other teams in the division - Arizona, San Francisco and Seattle - to improve. This line is too high as a result.
Ultimately, I can’t put my faith in Goff to go out and win me eleven games when the Rams have a target on their back. The story feels oh-so-similar to what happened when the Carolina Panthers lost to the Denver Broncos in the 2015 title game before they went 6-10 the next season.
That Super Bowl hangover is real.
Los Angeles Chargers Over 10.5 wins @ 5/7
As you will see in later analysis this season, I am very sweet on the Los Angeles Chargers. They won 12 games last year, and this off-season the roster got even better.
LA gets its star tight end, Hunter Henry, back fully fit and the team landed two massive steals in the draft -- defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and safety Nasir Adderley. And for once (!), the Chargers' September schedule is favorable, with matchups against the Colts, Lions, Texans and the Dolphins.
I expect Anthony Lynn's side to be able to beat the Lions and Dolphins - even if they're away from home - and the Texans. Indianapolis is a much different proposition, although it could be a close affair if quarterback Andrew Luck's niggling shoulder problems continue.
Starting 3-1 would lead the Chargers into the second quarter of the season in prime position to win eleven games, especially with the Broncos and Raiders in the division. There is the problem of the Chiefs, but I feel last year's poor defense in Kansas City may have gotten even weaker this off-season. So I'm leaning on LA to surpass last year's AFC runner ups in 2019.
The Chargers are going to be a team to fear in 2019 and might even make it deep into the playoffs. Running back Melvin Gordon sitting out isn't ideal but I don't expect that situation to get out of hand. I'm okay with Austin Ekeler filling in for a game if Melvin Gordon takes it that far. But I doubt it.
Chicago Bears Under 9.5 wins @ 8/11
This line may seem too good to be true for Over bettors, but you know as well as I do: when a bet seems too good to be true, it usually is.
The Bears scream regression to the median. They were a 12-win team last year led by a dominant defense under the management of coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio has since left for Mile High, giving me serious doubts that Khalil Mack an Co. can reproduce what they showed last year.
I just don’t think the unit will be the same force again, not on new defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano's shoulders. As the Jaguars showed in 2017, it is nearly impossible to be an impenetrable defense for two years in a row in the NFL. Unless you really are one of the best all time, getting every key piece back has historically meant no battle for jobs in training camp and a loss of hunger in the regular season. Not good.
Then I come to Mitchell Trubinsky. He is a middle of the road starter, and maybe slightly lower in my own opinion. Unless his progression takes a massive leap forward, I can’t see this team getting into double figure win totals, especially with the fifth toughest schedule in the NFL.
The team could still hit nine wins and scrape into the playoffs, but I don't see the team looking as comfortable in 2019 as in 2018.
COVER PHOTO: The Denver Post
