On Thursday 25th of April, the eyes of the NFL will focus on Nashville, Tennessee where the 84th NFL Draft will take place. This year's class has a number of top tier athletes including quarterback Kyler Murray, defensive linemen Nick Bosa & Quinnen Williams, and linebacker Devin White.
Those names are just the tip of the iceberg. I can't remember a draft with so many questions this close to the first pick being announced. Whatever happens with the #1 overall selection, it's going to have a major impact on the rest of the draft.
Especially if the first name announced is not Kyler Murray.
FIRST LINEBACKER DRAFTED
Before we even start to dive into all the possible permutations, there is a price available at Ladbrokes for Devin White @ 4/9 to be the first linebacker drafted. I don't know how much juice you like to lay in a price but this as near on free money as you can get.
VERDICT: Devin White @ 4/9
FIRST OVERALL PICK
Now onto the question on everybody's mind: who is going first? Is Murray really a lock at one? Or are the fresh rumours saying the Cardinals will not take him true?
From a betting point of view, it doesn't make sense to take that risk given the current odds, best priced at 2/5 with William Hill, as per Oddschecker on Thursday morning. It's interesting to note that this was as short as 1/10 last week.
From following the betting markets, if it's not Murray, it seems pretty safe to assume that it will be Quinnen Williams or Nick Bosa. Both have received significant support in the recent days.
I think both are worth a small bet at their respective best prices of 9/2 and 12/1.
VERDICT: Quinnen Williams @ 12/1 or Nick Bosa @ 9/2
WIDE RECEIVERS, OVER/ UNDER and FIRST WIDE RECEIVER DRAFTED
Now, taking a look at how the first round will pan out, I think that there is a wrong line set for the number of wide receivers taken in the first round. I would expect this to be Over/Under 1.5. It’s currently set at O/U 2.5.
More on that, I think Marquise Brown will be the first wide receiver off the board. There was a lot of hype around DK Metcalf when he posted freakishly athletic numbers at last month's draft, but since then, the hype has dropped significantly (I'll talk about that below). Marquise Brown is the play @7/5. Brown is the cousin of Oakland Raiders superstar Antonio Brown, and has the biggest buzz at the position in the last two weeks.
VERDICT: Under 2.5 wide receivers @ 8/11 and Marquise Brown first WR drafted @ 7/5.
CLEMSON PLAYERS IN ROUND 1, OVER/UNDER
My final bet which I can find value in is in the O/U 2.5 Clemson players going in the first round. The three Clemson defensive linemen should go in the first round and I make this a play at 8/11 with Paddy Power.
VERDICT: Over 2.5 Clemson players @ 8/11
WILDCARD: Last player in the Green Room drafted
The NFL Draft has turned into one of the biggest spectacles on the NFL calendar. Some of America's biggest networks - ESPN, NFL Network and ABC - will all descend on Nashville to cover the event. And nothing helps their coverage more than some drama.
At least three guys in the green room on Day 1 won't hear their names because 35 players will sit back there even though there's only 32 picks. The list includes sure fire selections like Williams and Bosa but other guys will have to slip. And when all is said and done, I predict DK Metcalf will be the lone player sitting in there.
Metcalf looked like a freak at the combine and posted gaudy numbers. But while the NFL's Facebook page was comparing him to Batman, scouts highlighted Metcalf's stiffness and said his low body fat number could make him struggle with the NFL lifestyle.
Metcalf's spot in the green room is as much about him being a household name as it is his talent. The networks have built him up for a fall and at 13/1 on Paddy Power I think it's an easy way to win some money.
VERDICT: DK Metcalf last in the green room @ 13/1
OTHERS
There are other bets I feel will win but pose little to no value:
- Over 3.5 quarterbacks taken in the first round @ 2/7
- Josh Jacobs to be the first running back drafted @ 1/5
- I had fancied Kyler Murray to be the number two overall pick. If Arizona wants Murray, there's no other team getting him. But if they're trying to build trade interest and everyone calls their bluff, the number two overall pick is where teams need to jump to to get ahead of Oakland. (Oakland itself might jump up.) At 5/1, and with so many scenarios needed to play out, this bet may not be worth the risk.
