Over the last couple of weeks, we dove into some of the best over/under prices we could find and examined which teams offer the greatest value in 2019. Some creative parlays will hopefully bring your earnings up when all is said and done. Check them out here and here if you haven't already.
Today, we're onto bigger prices. We've looked at some of the best prop bets and found big prices on often ignored markets. Big risk bigger reward. We've done our best to break events down for you, and gave alternatives who bookies favour. Let's start by explaining why 22/1 for Myles Garrett to earn the Defensive Player of the Year is a great price.
Defensive Player of the Year
It's tough to call this bet considering half the league's players compete for the title. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald is aiming for an unprecedented three-in-a-row and JJ Watt aims for an unprecedented fourth win.
Seeing as we're playing a numbers game, we don't think those records get broken. It's just such rare ground to walk on. We think Donald is likely to see more double teams as a result of off-season Rams departures, and Watt could be defended more if Jadeveon Clowney is traded.
Bears DE Khalil Mack seems like great shout for the award, but at 3/1 it doesn't seem like a great price. Mack has been huge in training camp and stepped up as a leader since being traded a year ago. But with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio taking the top job in Denver the defense could take a step back, plus things might go a bit stale with all the same starters on the field. Those are flakey ifs, but it's really the price we don't like.
Conversely, we love the price Browns defensive end Myles Garrett comes at: a massive 22/1 with some bookmakers. There's a huge energy in Cleveland that should put a pep in every Browns player's step.
Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks replaced Gregg Williams in the off-season, and his defensive style should be massively beneficial for this defense. He runs an aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme that flourishes off a strong defensive line, and proved it can benefit further from a loaded secondary. Wilks was in charge of Carolina's defense when linebacker Luke Kuechly won DPOY in 2013 -- the only player not named Mack, Donald or Watt to win the award since 2012.
With the DBs helping Garrett and running partner Olivier Vernon out (alá Kuechly with Josh Norman with the Panthers), we expect F̶a̶c̶t̶o̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶S̶a̶c̶k̶n̶e̶s̶s̶,̶ ̶J̶u̶n̶k̶y̶a̶r̶d̶ ̶D̶a̶w̶g̶s̶,̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶L̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶F̶r̶o̶n̶t̶ whatever the D-Line is called to have a ferocious year. And it'll be lead by the former first overall pick Garrett, who's going into that always important third year of his contract. It's a line we feel good about, and something we broke down in more depth on the Two Green Browns podcast (a must follow for British and Irish Browns fans) and in our July piece, here.
This is a huge price for a guy going to be in the thick of it all year. It's not an easily won title, but Garrett won't be far off it if Cleveland lives up to the hype.
VERDICT: Myles Garrett @ 22/1
Worst record in the NFL
2019 could be a hard watch for the Miami faithful; so much so that we're backing the Phins to become the fourth team in Super Bowl history to host the title game and own the first overall pick in the same year. (For stat heads, Indianapolis in 2012, New Orleans in 1981 and Houston in 1974 are the only other cities to achieve that.)
Miami plays seven of last year's 12 playoff teams (the Saints, Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers, Colts, Eagles) in 2019, with those first five teams coming in back-to-back weeks. With games against the improving Bills and Jets to come within the division, and the Browns outside it, it's difficult to see any run of form coming.
The only games that look competitive are against the Washington Redskins in Week 6 (after Miami's bye), the New York Giants in Week 15 and at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16. We base that on a possible quarterback change in Washington come that portion of the season, while Miami could nab a couple of wins down the stretch if the Giants and Bengals aren't in the playoff hunt.
The reason behind the lack of competitiveness: is team’s roster just looks decimated. Miami is the only team in the league we struggle to find a saving grace for (and being honest, the saving grace is the chance at picking quarterback Tua Tagovailoa next year). It's tough for quarterback Josh Rosen, who has gone from one poor situation to another since entering the league. The former 10th overall pick could likely be in limbo again in 2020. But emotions aside, this line is so easy to lock up. NAP
(In case it's of interest, William Hill is offering "any team to go 0-16" @ 25/1.)
VERDICT: Dolphins @ 3/1
Coach of the Year
The obvious pick for NFL Coach of the Year is Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens. Cleveland has all the hype, all the talent, and all the fingers pointing to a good year. It seems like an open and shut case, especially considering journalists (who have loved Kitchens this off-season) vote on the award.
For those interested in picking Kitchens, you can get him for around 9/1 if your bookie offers this market. But our pick for 2019 Coach of the Year is going to a guy who's won the title twice before and at 25/1 is a bit more of an outside-the-box pick: New Buccaneers head coach, Bruce Arians.
Arians runs an aggressive offense that suits Tampa Bay's weapons perfectly. It's so perfect that it coaxed the 66-year-old out of retirement. Despite a shaky offensive line, Tampa Bay has one of the best offensive skill groups in the NFL (even after trading wide receiver DeSean Jackson) and lead the league in passing yards last year.
Arians has come in and spent a huge amount of time coaching quarterback Jameis Winston. The belief is all other areas will fall in to place should the former first overall pick start living up to his potential. And having seen Arians revive Carson Palmer's career in Arizona - getting him into the MVP discussion in 2015 - we believe this could have a quick impact. Suddenly, the Buccaneers could be looking very good.
We did an in-depth breakdown of just how good this coaching staff could be for Tampa Bay in the off-season. We discussed how the coaches all have had huge success in Year 1, how good it could make the offense, and how we think it's likely their defense improves drastically under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. If they can improve this team in a tough division and get close to the playoffs, it may well be reflected by an entertaining Arians receiving another Coach of the Year award.
To put this bet in Arians' words, "no risk, no biscuit".
VERDICT: Bruce Arians @ 25/1
Come Back Player of the Year
Come Back Player of the Year is a nice line to get behind. It's less competitive than other markets and has a bit of a feel good factor to it.
The bigger the name, the more likely they are to get the title. That means a few candidates already rise to the top.
We're looking at Jets running back Le'Veon Bell, who will be heavily scrutinised after skipping all of 2018. Fellow NFC East running back and second year guy Darius Guice could come back after his ACL tear last off-season, but splitting snaps with Adrian Peterson could be tough to overcome for him. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will look to play his first full year with San Francisco - having joined the team in 2017 - and enters as the bookies' favourite for the crown. But the voters try to spread the title around to more than just quarterbacks since the position claimed the award for six straight years between 2008-2013. So while trying to be smart, we found a guy outside of quarterback that finds himself in a great situation.
Safety Earl Thomas was last seen flipping the bird to Seattle ownership while being carted off the field last September. After years of service and delivering a Super Bowl to Seattle, the star safety was forced to hit free agency and ultimately earned a huge contract with the Baltimore Ravens.
Thomas enters the year knowing he can show just how good of a player he is. Other Legion of Boom members fizzled out post-Seattle; cornerback Richard Sherman isn't the same stud in San Francisco, Byron Maxwell has bounced around teams and Kam Chancellor was forced to retire early due to injury. But Thomas is more likely to go against the grain, especially in last year's stingiest defense, per ESPN.
Baltimore was lights out defending the ball in 2019. It gave up fewest yards and second fewest points (after Chicago). It lost linebackers Terrell Suggs and CJ Mosley, with defensive coordinator Wink Martindale stating such departures will be made up for via a stacked secondary -- overseen by Thomas.
Per Spotrac, Baltimore spends a whopping 30.96% of its salary cap in the secondary. That's more than double any of its other position groups. There's quality guys like cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith, and safety Tony Jefferson. That's going to make the Ravens look unpenetrable. With a bunch of depth behind them, teams will find it difficult to move the ball in the air, and when they attempt to, it could easily be batted away or intercepted. We expect Thomas to thrive in the set up, and at 17/1, it's worth some money.
Additionally, the Ravens have three prime time games (Sunday Night Football against the Patriots, Week 9; Monday Night Football against the Rams, Week 12; Thursday Night Football against the Jets, Week 15) thanks to last year's playoff appearance and intrigue around quarterback Lamar Jackson, so Thomas's play can get some exposure.
VERDICT: Earl Thomas @ 17/1 (price is with Paddy Power; it's as low as 8/1 with Sky Bet)
Name the AFC Finalists
We're going to end with a bang. It's one we can do little to explain, so instead we'll just tell you what's been going under the radar all off-season and watch how the season plays out.
The Chargers and Colts are competing for the best rosters in the AFC. Their squads are absolutely loaded. As we wrote about recently, the Chargers are set to compete with the Chiefs for the AFC West. Both have top end offenses, but only one of them wins a defensive head-to-head.
Defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are devastating for the Chargers. The team got Brandon Mebane back too and added first round pick Jerry Tillery. If those four alone live up to their potential, teams are going to feel all kinds of pressure. Let alone that, but the Chargers have three 2018 All-Pro defensive backs - safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips, and cornerback Desmond King - while they also used a second round pick on safety Nasir Adderley. It's as stacked as the just-discussed Baltimore Ravens secondary.
In Indianapolis, you have a team so well put together that only a handful of teams compete with it on paper. Last year's Top 5 offense gets a healthy Jack Doyle back at tight end, plus play-making wide receiver Parris Campbell joins the team via second round pick. Last year's league-best offensive line returns, so a step forward seems certain.
The defense will want to continue improving after going from 30th in total defense two year's ago to eleventh last year; 26th to eighth in run defense; and 28th to 16th in pass defense, per Pro Football Reference. It'll hope to break into the top half in terms of sacks with the addition of defensive end Justin Houstin, and see further development from reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Darius Leonard, who looked phenomenal last year.
Now we're not saying this line is a cert. The Chiefs have the most exciting player in the NFL. The Browns are the most exciting team in the NFL. The Patriots are the best coached team in the NFL. There's so many seeding variables. But having both been just a game away from meeting in the AFC Championship game this past season, we can see them battling to go a step further in 2019.
Want something more inspiring to get behind? This market opened at 26/1! It's dropped to 10/1 in the space of us writing our previews. So we're saying it's worth a shot while there's still value in it.
VERDICT: Chargers v Colts @ 10/1
