An in-depth look at a number of betting markets heading into Super Bowl 53.
The Super Bowl. It comes on the first Sunday in February every year, and for the last 15-20 years, Bill Belichick has put the New England Patriots in a position to win it all almost every single time. But on the opposing sideline this year is Sean McVay, who is perhaps the successor to the New England head coach's "best-coach-in-the-game"crown.
On the field we have Tom Brady versus Jared Goff. Both have very little risk of making errors. Their coaches (McDaniel’s for Brady, McVay for Goff) are both in the top echelon of offensive minds in the game. I have had my doubts throughout the season about both quarterbacks. I still do. The two signal callers are in systems that are allowing them to play as well as either could hope. And on the flip side of the ball, they will face to strong defensive coaches.
New England have Belichick and Flores ( the imminent new Dolphins head coach). Belichick alone is a master. He simply gets the Patriots ready better than anyone else. The defense is prepared for almost anything, if not everything. But it doesn’t have many superstars other than cornerback Stephon Gilmore (who was first team All-Pro this year).
The Rams on the other hand are stacked full of big name talent on the defense. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald has been exceptional. He has a valid claim for the NFL MVP award. He has been outstanding all season. Practically unblockable.
And don’t think Wade Philips wouldn’t love to beat Belicheck. In my opinion, this is the key to the entire game. If the Rams can pressure Brady for 60 minutes, I don’t think they’ll lose. If they can’t, I don’t think they can win.
Without anymore talk lets look at a few bets that I fancy and breakdown why.
Handicap Analysis
The Super Bowl has been an underdog’s paradise lately. Six of the last seven Super Bowls have been won outright by the dog.
When Paddy Power first released the line for this game it had the Rams as 1-point favourites. That quickly changed. It’s now settled with the Pats as 2-point favourites.
I would say it’s reasonable to assume this game will follow the general play pattern of the entire NFL this season: it will be centered around offense. The telling moments in the game may be when either team gets the opposition in a passing situation on third down. The Chiefs couldn’t stop Edelman over the middle twice to win the AFC Championship game. Something tells me Wade Phillips is going to make sure that's not there.
This game is going to be close. I am a massive fan of both head coaches. But I think the Rams should be favoured here. They have been the better team over the course of the entire season (going 13-3 in the regular season versus the Patriots 11-5 record). If Los Angeles can get their play-action game going early and freeze the New England secondary, then it will be a massive advantage. This is especially true considering CJ Anderson's form entering the game in. The Rams running back will command respect and numbers in the box. I could be reading this saying after the game wondering did I really bet against Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl, but sometimes you just have to go with what you believe.
VERDICT: Rams Money line - 6/5 5 Pts
Total Over/Under Analysis
Of all the traditional betting markets, this is my least favourite. There is nothing worse than taking an under, and sometimes nothing worse than taking an over. I rarely bet on this market and I won’t be in the Super Bowl.
My lean is that this game will go over. This is two teams who will game plan enough this week to do them until next Christmas. The speedy surface in Atlanta is heaven for high powered offenses. The Rams and Patriots both have bad redzone defenses allowing touchdowns in over 75% of redzone visits by the opposition in their last three games. I imagine a lot of points being scored.
VERDICT: Over 56 - 10/11
PROP BETS
Superbowl MVP
I usually look for value in this market and wager low stakes. Nowadays it is somewhat of a formality that the winning QB will receive the award. All you have to do is look at James White against the Falcons two years ago to see it. However, betting on Tom Brady or Jared Goff at just over even money wouldn’t set my world alight.
I backed Broncos linebacker Von Miller at 33/1 when he won the award in 2016. And I have the same feeling this year as I did then: If this Rams team is going to win, Aaron Donald is going to make some amazing plays (and quite possibly a lot of them). He is the Rams X-Factor. At 20/1, he is definitely worth backing.
On the other side, there has to be some value in Gronk at 66/1. He is peaking now, and maybe that’s why Belichick saved the tight end so he comes in injury-free and fit. If Gronk shows up with some huge catches in big moments he could get the vote. ( Plus it could be his last game ever if the Patriots win.)
VERDICT: Aaron Donald - 20/1 .5 Pts OR Rob Gronkowski - 66/1 . 5 Pts
Longest Field Goal Scored
Greg the Leg. The only 3 words you should need to hear to make your decision here. Take the free money, it’s rare it comes around.
VERDICT: Los Angeles Rams - 9/10 2 Pts
PLAYER PROPS
James White Receiving Yards
One area that I think Belichick is going to try and expose is the advantage the New England running backs have over the Rams linebackers, especially in the passing game. Expect James White to see plenty of action in the passing game- especially early on.
VERDICT: James White Over 52.5 Receiving yards - 10/11
Most Receptions Handicap - Edelman vs Cooks
Look at what New England did to Tyreek Hill, and look how much Brady used Edelman throughout the Chiefs game. This line seems too good to be true.
VERDICT: Edelman -1.5 - 11/10
Highest scoring half
The Patriots have never scored a touchdown in the first quarter of any of the eight Super Bowls Brady and Belichick have been a part of. They like to come out and control the game by making a seven to ten minute drive the first time they have the ball. Last year, their first points came in the form of a field goal last year against the Eagles. So I imagine the game will heat up in the second half with both teams going blow for blow. The Patriots start slow in Superbowls. It is adjustments at half time that they are magnificent at.
VERDICT: Second half - 10/11
All in all, it appears as if it’s going to be a great game. It’s a game that’s going to have ebbs and flows for both teams. Two of the best head coaches and one of the greatest players to ever lace them up in Tom Brady.
I believe the Rams roster is more talented as a whole and may just have enough to get over the line. But if Belichick and Brady were to win another Super Bowl would it really suprise you?
Enjoy the best Sunday in the sports calendar and good luck with any bets you place!
PS: Steve Carell features in the Pepsi Super Bowl ad and it’s fantastic. Keep an eye out.
Enda Smith
