After Dirk Koetter took charge of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016, only Cleveland and Jacksonville went on to have fewer wins and prime time appearances during his three year spell. Both those teams had their time in the sun however -- Jacksonville going to the AFC Championship game in 2017 and the Browns, well, all off-season.
But the Bucs have been an after-thought.
Only twice this decade (2010 and 2016) has the team not been bottom of the NFC South. It hasn't made the playoffs since the 2007 season. And it is quite firmly in the conversation for the NFL's most unattractive franchise.
But in 2019, that might be about to change.
General manager Jason Licht was heavily criticised by fans after the 2018 season but his ability to lure now-head coach Bruce Arians out of retirement and into the Tampa Bay facility shows why he was kept on. Licht and Arians know each other from their Arizona days -- and that link is something the two relied heavily on when searching for other coaches this off-season.
Most of the staff passed through Phoenix during Arians' tenure with the Cardinals from 2013-2017. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles ran Arizona's Top 5 defense in 2014 before being named Coordinator of the Year and New York Jets head coach. Run-game coordinator Harold Goodwin helped Arians lead the league's best offense in 2015. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was a coaching intern under Arians in 2016 but was in charge of Arizona's offense by the end of last year.
Meanwhile in New York, the new coaches are already arguing and got the GM fired. Cincinnati is so unattractive that no one wanted to become defensive coordinator. Arizona grabbed the closest thing it could find to Sean McVay -- irregardless of NFL coaching experience. Tampa Bay supporters should be excited for the coaching staff in comparison -- even if it does look like an Arizona Cardinals glory days reunion.
While any of new coaching staff could work out - and I neglected to mention Green Bay, Miami and Cleveland's appointments - Tampa Bay got a familiar group that fits its personnel perfectly.
Quick turnarounds is seemingly what this group of coaches does best. Arians' was named Coach of the Year after his first season in charge (an interim stint in Indianapolis). Bowles' best record in New York came in his first year (missing the playoffs despite a 10-6 record). Leftwich's rise from intern to coordinator in three years speaks for itself.
And the staff has ambitions of making a big impact in Year 1 in Tampa Bay.
The significance of Tampa Bay signing Ndamukong Suh can't be underplayed. Teams don't pay guys huge money on one-year contracts - per Spotrac - unless they feel like they can win now. The Bucs front office clearly feels optimistic about its chance of success if its willing to let Gerald McCoy - and his $13 million cap hit - go, and pump $9 million into Suh.
Suh wasn't as much of a stand-out talent with Los Angeles last year largely because he was swapped to the inside of the defensive line. He'll find himself on the outside again with 2018's 12th overall pick Vita Vea occupying the nose tackle slot. Vea got off to a slow start last season largely due to injuries but graded out as a top defensive lineman in the closing weeks. He stuffed the run and impressed in pass rush.
Vea and Suh lining up next to each other will cause problems for opponents, especially because the two can be shifted around the line. It can hinder double team assignments and cause confusion. There's a drop off in talent up front after them, but the linebackers seem poised to mask that.
Tampa Bay has a strong starting linebacker group. It starts with Lavonte David, who has racked up the NFL's third most tackles since being drafted in 2012. Fifth overall selection this year, Devin White, is the perfect fit for the middle and is an upgrade on the departed Kwon Alexander (who signed a $54 million contract with San Francisco in free agency). Arizona transplant Deone Bucannon entered the league as a safety in 2014 but became a hybrid linebacker under Bowles in Arizona and, like his teammates, has speed and size to cover all kinds of players.
David, White and Bucannon in particular will be tasked with causing turnovers in the open-field as well as getting pressure. They will be pivotal in 2019 as they disguise blitzes and coverage. But they're part of an almost perfect personnel for Bowles' system, and there.
Bowles likes to bring pressure from everywhere. He ranked second in blitzing over his New York spell and was first while in Arizona. He likes to play Cover 0, a defensive scheme that relies heavily on defensive backs winning in man coverage while his front seven brings pressure on whoever holds the ball.
Tampa Bay's young secondary might be a slight hitch for Bowles as a result. Bowles drafted two first round safeties (Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye) with the Jets in 2017 while he could rely on Tyrann Matheiu and Tony Jefferson in Arizona.
Tampa Bay's defensive backs on the other hand could be in flux after a disappointing 2018. A second and two third round picks were spent on cornerbacks Sean Bunting & Jamel Dean and safety Mike Edwards respectively. Whether starters can be supplanted remains to be seen, but the picks highlight the importance of a strong back end in this scheme. The unit certainly needs to show improvement in a pass happy NFC South, with particular scrutiny coming on former first-round pick, cornerback Vernon Hargreave; whose career has not panned out well thus far.
Then you have the offense. It's filled with talent, as evidenced by just one, sixth-round selection being added to it in the draft. Its receiving play-makers are balanced perfectly for Arians' "no risk it, no biscuit", aggressive scheme that likes to create space via an elite wide receiver and deep threat option.
Wide receiver Mike Evans is that elite guy who will take the focus from the opposing defense's best players. Breshard Perriman will force the secondary to defend against the deep-ball, creating space for tight end OJ Howard and receiver Chris Godwin to get open easier. While Arians would love an elite, dual-threat running back to really ensure chaos ensues, the biggest question mark is at quarterback.
Peyton Manning. Andrew Luck. Ben Roethlisberger. Bruce Arians has molded many of the league's best ever quarterbacks. He's had such an impact on the high-end talent that he wrote a book called the Quarterback Whisperer in 2017; outlining how he helped some of the game's greatest signal callers.
Cue Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston -- who has been underwhelming since entering the league first overall in 2015. Quarterback guru Dirk Koetter couldn't get the most out of Winston (despite a Pro Bowl rookie year) in four years. So in a make-or-break year for Winston, he'll hope new head coach Arians can work his magic once more.
Arians helped quarterback Carson Palmer become part of the MVP conversation in 2015 after his had career stalled. Now he needs to kick start Winston's transformation from average quarterback to game-changer in the same way. If he can't, it likely means the Bucs will move on from the signal caller. If he can, there's no telling what this offense can do.
Tampa Bay moved the ball last year. In fact, it had more yards through the air than anyone else. But Winston was at the helm for less than 60% of those yards after making his way in and out of the starting lineup. The 25-year-old struggles in situational play and displays poor judgement. But those kinds of things can be corrected through good coaching *and* good scheming.
Koetter would still have his job if Tampa Bay's front office believed he could coach and scheme for Winston appropriately. But after working with Winston for four years - as both offensive coordinator and head coach - they learnt Koetter couldn't. So taking on Arians is very similar to what happened with Mike McCarthy being replaced by Matt LaFleur in Green Bay -- the coach is being identified as the missing piece.
And Winston gives his new coach many of the physical traits he wants. He has a big arm to make throws down the field. His technique doesn't need to be worked on. He has some mobility which is a luxury compared to what Roethlisberger and Palmer offered Arians. His mental aspects bode well too, like heart - he would genuinely cheer on Ryan Fitzpartick last year - and passion -- insert eating finger GIFs here.
There's a few months before we get back to football and see what Arians has changed about Winston. It couldn't come at a better time - for both Winston and the front office - considering Winston is in a contract year and the team has a plethora of play-makers to work with. Just like the defense, we're going to see the offense's full potential pretty quickly. Whether it shows improvements remains to be seen.
After earning the fifth overall pick in the draft despite having a Top 5 offense, the front office decided it was time for change in Tampa Bay. And it has made all the right moves in terms of improving. Bear in mind Arians went 8-8 in 2017 with an Arizona roster pretty close to the squad that went 3-15 in 2018. He's effective. The biggest issues - defense and quarterback - have been matched with coaches that can get the best from them, and fast.
A year from now, we'll know exactly what Tampa Bay has. If this staff can't get much from them, it's time for an aggressive rebuild. If that isn't happening.. well there's a good chance Tampa Bay is relevant again.
