Kliff Kingsbury stood in Texas Tech's training facility. The then-Red Raiders head coach was a day removed from a loss to Iowa State and was looking ahead to his team's next challenge: a 7-1 Oklahoma. The Sooners were coming to Texas ranked 7th in the nation. And they had a quarterback playing at a Heisman level.
"Kyler [Murray] is a freak," Kingsbury said about the opposing signal caller: "I've followed him since he was a sophomore in high school and just think the world of him and what he can do on the football field... I've never seen him have a poor outing."
Then, Kingsbury made a declaration that will stay with him and Murray for the rest of their careers:
“I’d take [Murray] with the first pick in the NFL draft if I could. I know he’s signed up to play baseball, but he’s a dominant football player. I would take him with the first pick.”
No formula exists to decipher the likelihood of Kingsbury being in a position to draft Murray first overall. You can be sure it would astronomical odds. But events played out and Kingsbury - as the Arizona Cardinals new head coach - owns the first pick -- and columnists, radio hosts, analysts and front offices will speculate whose name will be called when Arizona picks first on April 25.
But you can be sure the name won't be Kyler Murray.
Quarterback Josh Rosen looked miserable for the Cardinals after being selected 10th overall in last year's draft. In 13 starts for Arizona, Rosen threw for 2,278 yards with 11 touchdown passes , 14 interceptions and 45 sacks.
Compare Rosen's numbers to 2016's first overall pick Jared Goff who - through 7 games - was on pace to throw for 2,022 yards, 9 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and 48 sacks in 13 games (or a rookie season as long as Rosen's).
The quarterbacks' similar numbers and Goff's subsequent success under head coach Sean McVay - who also came on-board in his QB's second season - shows how patience with younger quarterbacks is key. Regardless of how you feel about Goff, the 24-year-old just went to the Super Bowl under McVay. And that's what Kliff Kingsbury was employed to do with Rosen, not Murray.
Kingsbury would not be the Cardinals head coach unless the front office views him as an adaptable mentor who can scheme for any quarterback. As Cardinals writer Darren Urban said on the Cardinal's Underground podcast: "If Kliff Kingsbury is going to succeed on this level, I think he needs to be able to make Josh Rosen [work in his scheme].
"There shouldn't be a Kliff Kingsbury quarterback," Urban continued: "You can talk about whether Josh Rosen is going to develop into a good NFL quarterback. But if you're going to tell me Josh Rosen is going to be a good NFL quarterback - but he just doesn't fit into what Kliff Kingsbury is doing - then I've got an issue."
Rosen was touted for flawless mechanics, an incredible football IQ and the ability to make a range of throws in the build up to last year's draft. Being stuck in the league's worst offense for a year shouldn't change that assessment of Rosen's natural ability. Moving on from the quarterback after just one season would completely undermine what Arizona's front office and scouts traded up for last year.
Some teams will see Murray as a top 10 pick, while others will see him as a mid- to late- first rounder. That kind of uncertainty is miles from where Rosen was last year. Rosen ultimately slid to the number 10 spot because of his "unusual" personality" but was praised as the most compete quarterback in the draft. NFL Media's Bucky Brooks even described Rosen as "the most polished quarterback prospect I've scouted since Andrew Luck".
Then comes the opportunity-cost of drafting Murray and passing on one of the elite players at the top of the draft. Freakish athletic ability is available to the Cardinals whether they pick first overall or trade back a few spots. Passing up on big-time players like Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen in place of another rookie quarterback project would not only set the Cardinals back another year, but it could also be the final straw for a general manager on the hot seat.
The Cardinals have invested too much in Rosen and will still believe he is their guy. So whether Murray proves to be a game-changer or not, don't expect to see it play out under Kliff Kingsbury -- despite Kingbury's comment meaning he and Arizona will always be linked to their decision not to take the quarterback.
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